Posts Tagged ‘foreclosures’

In roaming through my research sites, a fascinating possibility was offered up to account for the “green shoots” and “economic recovery” that we have heard so much about lately.

The theory starts with the millions of foreclosures in the United States which have created millions of home owners that are living in their homes for free.

Well, if you are not paying a mortgage, interest, property taxes, HOA dues, Association Fees, home owners insurance, PMI or maintenance costs…then all of that money you are not spending, can be spent on new cars, new televisions, new gadgets, vacations, new furniture, new boats, new ATV’s, new motorcycles, paying off credit cards and student loans, invested in the stock market, buying gold, etc…

It may well be that this “economic recovery” we are experiencing is nothing more than foreclosed home owners spending the mortgage money on “stuff.” This would look like a recovery driven by “consumers.” This would be false.

If this theory is true, then this “recovery” is headed for a cliff. Again.

I’ll be gone for the three day weekend so I did two posts today.

This map is from Zillow.  The city shown is Orange, CA which is not a high-end part of the OC but it’s not bad either…it’s a nice place to live. The image represents just six miles of OC.

So what are we to make of the mess in this image?  Is that a lot of people trying to leave a nice place to live or a lot of people trying to sell houses they can’t afford anymore?

Click on image to enlarge

See you on Tuesday.

After reading this L.A. times article from Saturday, I have to ask myself, why is the government surprised that conforming loans, the “safe bet investment” 30 year fixed rate loans that have been the bread and butter of mortgage loans for generations, are suddenly going into foreclosure?

They seem shocked by this.  I’m not.  It makes perfect sense to me.

The reasons even the “safest” loans are no longer safe are simple… 

  • Unemployment – The article is right that unemployment is playing a factor, I’ll agree with that. 
  • Strategic Defaults – What the article didn’t mention are strategic defaults. People that put down 20%-30% on the house have long since lost their down payment from their plummeting home value.  And when you lose your down payment, and then continue to watch the house decline in value, you start to consider handing the house over to the bank and walking away.

The incentives to walk away are much stronger than the penalties.

Homeowners with safe mortgages (and of course unsafe like sub-prime and Alt-A) are deciding more and more that the decline in the value of their house is worth being foreclosed on and renting for several years while they save money for a new house that will be much cheaper in a few years.  In fact, if they use an FHA loan in the future, even with a foreclosure on their record, they will only have to wait 3 years to qualify.

So think about it…dump a house that’s losing value by the day, find a much cheaper but nice rental and save lots of money every month, and then buy back into the housing market in 3 years with a big down payment when cheap houses are saturating the market and the buyer is calling all the shots.

And consider that as home prices continue to decline, this idea sounds better and better to more and more home owners that are underwater on their mortgages.  This will generate more and more people to perform a strategic default, which in turn creates more foreclosures which adds fuel to the decline in prices, which makes this idea sound better and better to more and more home owners that are underwater….you get the idea.  A nice, classic example of a vicious cycle.

Sounds good to me.  Sounds great to them.

Moral Hazard

You guys are the people on the bottom of the picture…the ones bearing the burden of this entire government mess.

Unbelievable what happened today.

I want everyone out there to know…if you did the right thing…if you did the responsible thing…the government has just screwed you yet again.  Sometimes I feel like there is  a government committee whose sole purpose is to find new and inventive ways to screw the American people.

Fannie Mae has announced a new program, as of today, called “Deed for Lease.”  Are you guys ready for this?  I can’t believe it…I’m stunned.  The stupidity of the government has now reached a monumental level.  I’m embarrassed to be associated with them, in any way.

Under this new program, any deadbeat sitting in a house going through foreclosure can now surrender the deed to Fannie Mae and they will rent the property back to them for a year.

Imagine all of those irresponsible people who bought dream homes they couldn’t afford, with loans that allowed them to pay ridiculously low monthly payments – payments below even the rental value of the property, then they extracted money from the appreciation and bought new cars, flat screens, took vacations and lived well above their means for a couple years, lived the life, lived the dream.

But then the bill came due as their house devalued and the mortgage rates reset and they couldn’t make their payments, so the house went into foreclosure.  That process takes a year, so while they wait for eviction…a whole year…they get to live in their dream home for FREE.  While we suckers pay our rent or mortgage.  It was bad enough that they could walk away from the house after having spent hundreds of thousands of dollars living it up for a few years with only a ding on their credit report…but now…

…the government is saying, send us your deed and we will rent the property to you at local market rent prices.  So they get to live in their dream house ANOTHER year and pay no more than it’s rental value.  Not only that, but now as a renter…they pay no property taxes! And when the year is up, they can go month to month! How is that FAIR?

To add insult, let me also mention that this would potentially make the U.S. Government the largest landlord in the country.  And guess what landlords have to do?  They have to maintain their properties, which means all of us are now on the hook to PAY for the maintenance and upkeep of these homes while these fools live in them.

While they were partying it up and buying everything they ever wanted and traveling the world we were saving and working hard and being responsible.  Ever since this recession started, this government has consistently and without mercy rewarded everyone who was reckless and irresponsible and maliciously castigated anyone with a shred of responsibility.  What a horrible government to treat its citizenry in such a way.

And what about moral hazard?  There are people out there in homes they can barely afford…where is the incentive to continue making those payments?  The government is incentivizing people to stop paying their mortgage!

Lastly…Fannie Mae already owns 60,000 homes that they REFUSE to sell.  600,000 Americans in 2008 walked away from their mortgages.  The volume of shadow inventory out there is staggering.  The banks, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac…they are all keeping that inventory off the market to prevent the price correction to housing that is so desperately needed.  This is just one more smoke and mirrors mirage gimmick the government is perpetrating on the American people to cover up for its horrendous monetary policy decisions that have led to the greatest economic recession since the 1930′s, a precipitous drop in our standard of living and the destruction of the dollar.

ReinflateTheBounceThe only thing missing from this cartoon is you, the taxpayer, driving the truck.

Tax credits for home purchases are just re-distributions of wealth taken from all of us and given to first-time home buyers.  Unfortunately for the rest of us, the government is doing everything it can to keep home prices inflated and homes overvalued.  That makes a first time home buyer the government’s new BFF.

The government is doing everything they can do to stop the slide in prices and sales.  This is absolutely the worst thing they could do.

“Lawmakers [that's just a big word for politicians, sharks is another word] said they want to prevent home sales from slipping as the economy struggles to recover from the worst drop in home prices since the Great Depression.” ~Bloomberg.com [italicized words are mine]

It should be obvious to everyone that the percentage of loans being financed through the government’s FHA program rising from 2.7% to 23% in just three years means the government is increasingly becoming the lender of only resort.  Not last resort…only resort.  As I mentioned in a previous post, an increasing number of those loans are now defaulting which has consumed all of the FHA’s reserves for such defaults now putting you and I on the hook for yet another bailout.  And also as I’ve mentioned before, just like with subprime borrowers, just about anyone with a pulse can qualify for a loan through the FHA.

Banks will not underwrite buyers who can’t afford overpriced homes, or don’t have any money for a down payment, but our government will.  The federal government is not, and was never meant to be, a mortgage loan company.  To make matters worse, as those buyers default, which they are in record numbers, the government just uses the bottomless pockets of the American taxpayer to cover its losses.

This is wrong, wrong, wrong.

So keeping in theme, the lawmakers…err…politicians, in our government have decided to vote on extending and expanding the new home buyer tax credit.  However, because the free market system is such a beautiful thing and it inevitably trumps all efforts at distortion and manipulation; political efforts to suspend the descent in prices have been unsuccessful, so the politicians have decided to double their efforts.  This will ultimately succeed only in delaying the house price correction, not preventing it.

There are several pieces of legislation that include variations of the tax credit idea.  These include an expansion of the credit to include individuals and couples with much higher incomes, a tax credit for people who already own homes and have lived in them for more than five years, a tax credit for people who trade up to larger homes, and of course a tax credit for first time home buyers (which only means they haven’t bought a home in the last 3 years, so that’s like pretty much everyone).

What is the recurring theme in all of these ideas?

To encourage Americans to take on more debt.

This is no different than the Cash-For-Clunkers program I talked about which encouraged Americans to take on debt.  No different than the government forcing interest rates down and keeping them there, which encourages people to spend rather than save.  Nothing the government has done actually encourages Americans to save, which is what we need.  The government wants us to spend to drive the economy and once we spend every penny we have, to take on debt.

The politicians might talk a good game about how we should become savers but while they mesmerize and distract us with one hand, they perform tricks quite the opposite with the other.

The government does not care that home prices will continue to fall and what that will do to everyone who stretches themselves to their financial breaking point to get into a house under their encouragement.  They are only concerned about gimmicky tricks and legislation that slow down the descent in prices so the pain is spread out and shared by as many people as the government can trick into buying  a house.

Who cares about an $8,000 tax credit when the home they buy will drop $8,000 in the first six months they own the property?  The government is hell bent on continuing this economically destructive and counterproductive plan of driving the economy through debt spending, malinvestment and propping up inflated home prices.

The government will not be satisfied until every person is either underwater on their home, crushed by a mortgage they should never have qualified for, or stuck on the sidelines renting while their taxes go up to pay for it all.